Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 20.235421 23.517303 27.445030 32.577949 39.242897 47.805392 59.993868
2025-02-09 15.651354 19.280827 24.037757 30.965001 41.244379 56.793621 84.154706
2025-02-16 13.856472 17.795689 23.315283 32.060147 46.567877 72.046472 127.898193
2025-02-23 12.318897 16.282202 22.103092 31.915181 49.669137 85.019320 180.524661
2025-03-02 11.154084 15.081637 21.072339 31.704528 52.450576 98.879486 255.160245
2025-03-09 10.355882 14.295906 20.519607 32.120929 56.521116 118.350330 390.513733
2025-03-16 9.414902 13.167362 19.227922 30.891328 56.692557 128.139519 520.097304
2025-03-23 8.814254 12.507048 18.621624 30.826127 59.480565 148.108388 817.217276
2025-03-30 8.076905 11.552295 17.386764 29.273704 58.159207 153.706493 1058.078015
2025-04-06 7.395319 10.634472 16.123509 27.465298 55.695166 153.699970 1267.178208
2025-04-13 6.852878 9.909232 15.138926 26.104808 54.100441 156.541768 1610.163269
2025-04-20 7.008013 10.366902 16.349880 29.701612 67.817537 247.251116 14955.011535
2025-04-27 6.857629 10.303372 16.614129 31.337524 77.061915 344.310249 NaN
2025-05-04 6.386423 9.637343 15.638262 29.818717 74.969008 357.833203 NaN
2025-05-11 6.215208 9.494574 15.683915 30.854767 82.839601 489.303827 NaN
2025-05-18 5.950232 9.159771 15.302747 30.717681 86.177996 596.971613 NaN
2025-05-25 5.703892 8.841508 14.923580 30.518449 89.266466 730.203185 NaN
2025-06-01 5.527146 8.640149 14.769282 30.912241 95.414679 992.708226 NaN
2025-06-08 5.242670 8.217850 14.105352 29.749026 93.503637 1063.284835 NaN
2025-06-15 5.063631 7.985793 13.834407 29.687312 97.302198 1384.097431 NaN
2025-06-22 4.793911 7.565949 13.121668 28.216963 92.960745 1361.944629 NaN
2025-06-29 4.522025 7.131123 12.352453 26.501752 86.817695 1231.441771 NaN
2025-07-06 4.296003 6.776313 11.742128 25.209607 82.723784 1184.655556 NaN